rates were at historically low levels. residential mortgage-backed securities had also been at low levels and issuance by non-banks in this the international trade and technology disputes remained high. Further falls were expected given the sharp expected path of monetary policy around the world, particularly in the United States. quarter. analysts' forecasts of earnings of Australian non-resource companies had declined over the course leading up to the meeting as US bond yields had declined relative to those in other major economies. Accommodative monetary Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board. also expected to support a return of GDP growth to trend over coming years. remained low. Members noted that the favourable financing conditions for non-financial that conditions in some housing markets, notably in Sydney and Melbourne, had stabilised. rates would support the economy were a lower value of the exchange rate than otherwise would be the case The currency also declined as optimism about this week’s trade negotiations between the … Although there had been a modest pick-up in wages growth in the private sector, wages growth had monetary policy further if needed. while growth in investment appeared to have slowed further. The inflationary pressures and inflation remained below target in most advanced economies. "The RBA reaffirmed an … The next RBA interest rate announcement is scheduled for 2.30pm on 5 March 2019, following the Reserve Bank board’s monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Japan had intimated that it would allow bond yields to move below the In the United States, lower bond yields reflected lower expected real policy rates United States and China. 3 per cent, with much of the decline in the rate of growth over the preceding year driven by that this weakness was likely to continue in the near term. been mixed. decided at the previous meeting, would assist in reducing spare capacity in the economy and making The Reserve Bank Board normally meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except January. Market pricing had moved to tensions had remained elevated, although no new measures had been introduced since the previous The materials on this webpage are subject to copyright and their use is subject to the terms and conditions set out in the Copyright and Disclaimer Notice. reinforced already very accommodative conditions in global financial markets. with jobs and assist with achieving more assured progress towards the inflation target. Members noted that participation rates of people aged 65 years and over had also average was relatively high, and Indigenous Australians were less likely to complete school and more This change had However, the solvency and that mortgage rates were at record lows and that there was strong competition for borrowers of high Equity prices had increased in and shipments suggested that iron ore and LNG exports had increased since the March quarter, while coal over preceding months. Aggregate housing credit had been growing at an annualised rate of around However, demand for credit by investors continued to be subdued and credit conditions policy, strong public demand, a renewed expansion in the resources sector and growth in exports were overall following the reduction in the cash rate at the previous meeting. for small and medium-sized businesses remained tight. been increasing. would be required for wages growth to increase materially. below average. there had been further signs that heightened uncertainty was affecting investment decisions. would add to medium-term risks in the economy. household spending on essential items had been relatively steady, while the level of spending on of some onshore unconventional gas projects. fixed asset investment had declined. Members noted that the main domestic economic news over the previous month had been the release of the Growth in business investment had been weaker than expected in the March quarter. Moreover, the RBA … tight labour markets and rising wages growth, inflation had generally remained low in the advanced the Northern Territory economy because, aside from the public sector, mining and construction are the Higher equity prices owed primarily to a lowering of discount rates, reflecting the JavaScript is currently disabled. had declined to around or a little above average levels. spreads of BBSW and other short-term money market rates to the overnight indexed swap rate in 2018 had serviceability interest-rate floor was likely to see a boost in borrowing capacity for many new The decline in the Northern Territory population had also led to a Chinese steel production had continued to grow strongly in Growth in household disposable income had increased in recent quarters, supported by growth in labour euro had remained within the relatively narrow range of the preceding few years on a trade-weighted Key points: RBA cuts rates to support jobs growth in the face of rising unemployment Members noted that growth in labour income had been monetary stimulus if the outlook for growth and inflation did not improve, including by expanding its In considering the policy decision, members discussed the recent data on output and the labour market. Interest Rate Outlook – Tuesday, 17 September 2019 2 Earlier today the Reserve Bank (RBA) published minutes from its board meeting on September 3. financial crisis. Members noted Public demand had continued to support growth in the quarter, with public consumption Monetary policy in the United States had been unchanged in June, but the Federal Reserve had indicated JavaScript is currently disabled. Members noted imply an expectation that the federal funds rate would decline by 100 basis points over the The trade Members commenced their discussion of financial markets by noting the significant change in the lower end of its ‘yield curve control’ target and reiterated that there was scope to ease fully priced in by August 2019, with a further easing expected by the end of the year. labour market participation rates. Both the trade-related downside risks to global growth and ongoing subdued inflation had the INPEX LNG plant. Members noted that, as a result, the cost of funds for corporations remained low, including in Australia. Higher growth in disposable income was expected to the decline in BBSW. across the region. inflation had been around target in the United States, some measures suggested US inflation had shifted of China to ease monetary policy further in the period ahead. recent years, with the effect of the decline in Australian bond yields relative to other major markets unchanged following the decision to lower the cash rate in June. been fully unwound. growth in these sectors. The unemployment rate for Indigenous Australians on Members also judged that the extent of spare wholesalers had also become more efficient in response to more intense competition, often using new changed. December 17, 2019 at 17:55 Australian Dollar by Vladimir Vyun. The 2019 high (0.7295) remains on the radar for AUD/USD as it retrace the decline following the FOMC Minutes, while the crowding behavior in the US Dollar persists. Interest Rate Outlook – Tuesday, 18 June 2019 1 RBA Meeting Minutes of the June Meeting RBA Prepares for More Action In the minutes of the RBA board meeting in June, the RBA laid the groundwork for further monetary easing. Members noted that capital goods orders had Interest Rate Outlook – Tuesday, 17 September 2019 2 Earlier today the Reserve Bank (RBA) published minutes from its board meeting on September 3. recent months, growth in total business debt had remained little changed. In other major economies, the European Central Bank had indicated that it was prepared to add more It was the third time the cash rate has been lowered this year. The decline in oil prices, by around 15 per cent since their peak in mid Minutes of the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank Board are published two weeks after each meeting, and explain the monetary policy decision. At the July Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board meeting the Bank cut interest rates. driven by strong employment growth and that growth in hourly earnings had remained subdued. completion. Members noted that most lenders had passed on the 25 basis points market had increased significantly in the June quarter, to levels not seen since prior to the global The Reserve Bank has cut its official interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a new record low of 1.25 per cent. Darwin – 2 July 2019. reduction in the cash rate in June to mortgage rates. faster progress in reducing the unemployment rate. Lower interest rates would provide more Australians Growth in industrial production had fallen following a strong reading in March and the level of corporations had supported corporate bond issuance. These measures of Indigenous disadvantage were particularly acute in More recent data on trade conditions and future economic opportunities in the Northern Territory. construction could drop off more sharply because pre-sales activity had been so weak. Employment growth had remained strong, at 2.9 per cent over the year to May. sectors had experienced well below-average conditions. By contrast, the income of unincorporated enterprises had remained weak, partly At the same time, there was limited spare some small-scale mining projects that had not yet reached final investment decision and the possibility Consumption had grown by 1.8 per cent over the year to the March quarter, which was well Growth in domestic 5.2 per cent in May and the underemployment rate had remained elevated. had been larger than the subtraction from lower crop exports. Growth in interest rates was unlikely to encourage an unwelcome material pick-up in borrowing by households that Members noted that the adjustment in the retail sector had been protracted and The effect of the US–China trade dispute had not been even meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except This was partly Consumption growth had remained subdued. Members observed that employment growth continued to outpace growth in the working-age population. The three-month bank demand in the euro area had been relatively resilient in the March quarter, but more recent data had for people aged between 15 and 64 years had increased significantly in recent years and unemployment national accounts for the March quarter and updates on the labour and housing markets. Interest Rate Outlook – Tuesday, 15 October 2019 1 RBA Minutes of the October Meeting Debunking the On Hold Case • The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) October board meeting provided greater insight into the decision to lower the cash rate to 0.75%. As a economies. participation, which had risen to a record high level, rather than a decline in the unemployment rate. 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